The Union Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has documented a rise in formation of severe cyclones over the north Indian Ocean, together with the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, and a spike in circumstances of extremely heavy rainfall, measuring over 20 centimetres (20 cm), in the previous three years.
Though frequency of severe cyclones has elevated, the lack of life has lowered to double-digit figures since 2013 due to higher forecast, MoES mentioned in Rajya Sabha in response to a query.
On common, 5 cyclones developed over the north Indian Ocean between 1891 and 2017.
But in 2018 and 2019, seven and eight cyclones had been recorded, respectively.
Five cyclones had developed over the Arabian Sea final 12 months. The regular is one cyclone per 12 months since 1902, the ministry mentioned.
More intense cyclones over the Arabian Sea had been reported final 12 months, in accordance to the MoES. In 2018, out of seven cyclones, six had been of severe depth; whereas final 12 months out of eight, seven had been severe.
“The country has witnessed intense to very intense rainfall activity leading to flood scenarios in the recent past,” the observe mentioned. It added that 554 climate stations reported extremely heavy rainfall, measuring over 20 cm, final 12 months.It cited that out of 4,000 climate stations, 3,056 reported very heavy rainfall.
The numbers had been decrease in 2018 and 2017, in accordance to the MoES observe.
In 2017, 261 stations had recorded extremely heavy rainfall and 1,824 stations had recorded very heavy rain. “There is an increasing trend in heavy and extremely heavy rainfall cases, which I have said in the past also. But there are no conclusions to be drawn from the three-year data. This has been happening for some time now. It doesn’t mean that every year cases of heavy or extremely heavy rainfall will be higher than the previous year,” mentioned Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general India Meteorological Department (IMD).
In reply to a query on a number of low-magnitude earthquakes in latest months, the MoES said that 413 tremors have been recorded by the National Centre for Seismology (NCS) between March 1 and September 8. Out of 413 tremors, 11 had been between 5 and 5.7 magnitude on the Richter scale, whereas 135 had been of lower than 3.
The ministry has mentioned there are not any plans for establishing extra variety of Cyclone Warning Centres as the necessities of all the coastal belt of the nation is roofed.
“IMD has demonstrated its capability to provide early warning for cyclones with high precision and has earned accolades globally and nationally for very effective, state of art early warning system for monitoring and prediction of cyclones. The cyclone forecast accuracy has significantly improved in recent years as has been demonstrated during cyclones Phailin (2013), Hudhud (2014), Vardah (2016), Titli (2018), Fani and Bulbul (2019) and Amphan & Nisarga (2020). Due to this, in recent years, the loss of life has been drastically reduced, being limited to double digit figures only,” it has mentioned.
According to “Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region”, a report of the MoES launched earlier this 12 months, from 1950 onwards there was a big rising development in the frequency and depth of utmost heavy rainfall occasions over central India together with a lowering development in the average rain occasions.
A research printed in Nature journal in 2017 by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) has concluded that three-fold rise in excessive rains alongside the west coast and central India between 1950 and 2015.